Handgun Ownership and Armed Violence in the Western Balkans

Introduction In the 1990s, the countries and territories of the Western Balkans1 experienced several transformations: a transition from socialism to liberal democracy, widespread economic decline, and episodes of violent conflict in Bosnia and Croatia (1991–95) and in Kosovo (1999) (see Map). Since the turn of the 21st century, the region has witnessed increasing political stability and socioeconomic adjustment. Yet while the threat of armed conflict in the region has decreased, levels of handgun ownership and armed violence remain high. Throughout the region, which has an overall population of about 25 million (UNDESA, n.d.), an estimated 3.6–6.2 million firearms are in civilian possession. The high prevalence of civilian-held firearms has been linked to the rate of violent crime, with the homicide rate in the Western Balkans being higher than in the other countries of Southern Europe as well as in Western Europe (Alvazzi del Frate and Mugellini, 2012; Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2011, p. 60). In addition, the high prevalence of firearms and violent crime in the region is linked to the activities of organized crime, which is largely perceived by both the international and the local population as one of the primary sources of insecurity in the Western Balkans. These findings call for an analysis of the dynamics of firearms possession and armed violence in the Western Balkans. This Issue Brief examines the historical aspects of firearms proliferation in the region in order to frame the issue. It also presents the results of a nationwide household survey conducted by Gallup Europe in the countries and territories of the Western Balkans in 2012. The Small Arms Survey had the opportunity to insert three questions relating to firearms possession and armed victimization into the 2012 Gallup Balkan Monitor (see Box 1). Where necessary, the data from the survey has been supplemented by information from other sources, such as international and national data, special reports, and policy and academic research. The main findings are as follows: The Western Balkans is home to an estimated 3.6–6.2 million registered and unregistered firearms. At least 500,000 and up to 1.6 million households own firearms in the Western Balkans. Since 1995, the average homicide rate in the region has decreased drastically, stabilizing at around 2.0 per 100,000 between 2007 and 2010. Nevertheless, the homicide rate is still significantly higher than in other European regions, and Issue Brief ARMED VIOLENCE